The days of mystery and speculation are over, and the iPad is out. It's kind of neat, I guess... basically it's an iPod Touch with a big screen, or looking from the opposite direction, a dumbed-down MacBook with a touch screen. If anything, it's an attractive device — not surprising for Apple.
It's going to be interesting to see how this develops over the next year or two.
I think we're reaching a point where it doesn't matter much what kind of
physical device you use to access your data and move it around. It's now
completely possible to save things "out there" and retrieve them wherever you
are. I know at least one person who's confessed to me his phone is becoming his
primary computer. And I find myself able to do a lot more on my phone than I
ever expected possible, even without a data plan. (Really, who needs a data
plan when WiFi is everywhere, even in Charleston, WV?)
I don't think the iPad is aimed at the computing elite. I think the target market is Joe and Jane Consumer, the ones who basically want to look at pictures, check email, and poke around on the Internet. For a lot of people, that honestly is enough. The iPad might work for that, assuming there's really a market for it. Generally speaking, I'm not overly impressed, but I can see it having a place. I do believe the Kindle is a dead-end street, for example.
Here's where I see things going. The iPad will start selling in the spring, and die-hard Apple fans and early adopters will snap it up as usual. Apple will funnel the early profits into working out the bugs, adding features, maybe a little more research and development — and a new model will come out toward the end of the year, I'd say mid-November at the latest. Just in time to make it the "must have" Christmas gift of 2010.
The installed base is going to be fairly significant this time next year, and it may be significant enough that 2011 is finally going to be the year when sitting down at your desk to use your computer starts to seem a bit ridiculous.
I think what's going to be more interesting, though, is seeing what happens with AT&T Wireless. The iPad is going to work on AT&T's 3G network in addition to having regular old WiFi. Now, AT&T's data network has already been overloaded by the iPhone. The iPad is going to make that worse. I wonder how much more data Apple needs to push through AT&T's network before it basically becomes the Apple network, and it makes more sense for Apple to just buy the company outright.
As for me, I'm going to sit back and watch the fun this year. I think the new features added to the iPad this year will make up for the nonevent today's announcement became, and I think they'll turn it into the device everyone hoped it would be. For now, it's not quite ready for prime time.